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Abstract
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF THE FORECASTING INTELLECTUAL METHODS Chumachenko1 T.A., Radyvonenko2 O.S., Korchak2 T.V., Makarova1 V.I. 1Kharkiv national medical university, Kharkiv, Ukraine 2National Aerospace University “Kharkiv Aviation Institute”, Kharkiv, Ukraine Abstract. In this paper problems of informatization in the field of monitoring and epidemiology supervision of infectious diseases are considered. The importance of a collaborative approach to the prevention and control of infections are highlighted. Time series forecasting methods are described. Basic methods of statistical, regression and fractal analysis are used. Also the problem of epidemic thresholds modeling was considered. The implementation of the fuzzy clustering procedure in the method of epidemic thresholds calculation was proposed. This feature allows exclude epidemic information from the calculation data, which will improve trueness and certainty of results substantially. Кеуwords: R/S analysis, forecasting, fuzzy clustering, epidemiological surveillance. СИСТЕМА ЕПІДЕМІОЛОГІЧНОГО НАГЛЯДУ НА ОСНОВІ МЕТОДІВ ІНТЕЛЕКТУАЛЬНОГО ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ Чумаченко1 Т.О., Радивоненко2 О.С., Корчак2 Т.В., Макарова1 В.І. 1Харківський національний медичний університет, м. Харків, Україна 2Національний аерокосмічний університет «Харківський авіаційний інститут», м. Харків, Україна Реферат. Робота присвячена проблемам інформатизації моніторингу та епідеміологічного нагляду за інфекційними захворюваннями в системі профілактики та боротьби з інфекціями. Описано методи прогнозування часових рядів, використані методи статистичного, регресійного і фрактального аналізу. У методиці розрахунку епідемічних порогів запропонована реалізація процедури нечіткої кластеризації. Ця функція дозволяє виключити інформацію про випадки захворювань під час епідемії або спалаху з даних розрахунків , що дозволяє істотно поліпшити достовірність і визначеність результатів . Ключові слова: R/S аналіз, прогнозування, нечітка кластеризація, епідеміологічний нагляд. СИСТЕМА ЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО НАДЗОРА НА ОСНОВЕ МЕТОДОВ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ Чумаченко1 Т.А., Радивоненко2 О.С., Корчак2 Т.В., Макарова1 В.И. 1Харьковский национальный медицинский университет, г. Харьков, Украина 2Національний аерокосмічний університет «Харківський авіаційний інститут», м. Харків, Україна Реферат. Работа посвящена проблемам информатизации мониторинга и эпидемиологического надзора за инфекционными заболеваниями в системе профилактики и борьбы с инфекциями. Описаны методы прогнозирования временных рядов, использованы методы статистического, регрессионного и фрактального анализа. В методике расчета эпидемических порогов предложена реализация процедуры нечеткой кластеризации. Эта функция позволяет исключить информацию о случаях заболеваний во время эпидемии или вспышки из данных расчетов, что позволяет существенно улучшить достоверность и определенность результатов. Ключевые слова: R/S анализ, прогнозирование, нечеткая кластеризация, эпидемиологический надзор.
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